A shares, coal futures up tracking, the market can also start?Basically see two aspects factor

2022-07-26 0 By

International coal prices rose superimpose Indonesia events catalyzed domestic coal prices expected to improve significantly, and steel news unrelated to domestic futures rose sharply in the evening, up nearly 9%.It is mainly catalyted by two factors: 1. The international coal price rose sharply, once hitting a new high, reaching $265 / ton (standard coal), and the benchmark domestic coal price was 2200+ YUAN/ton (5500 kcal).Driven by the international oil price and natural gas, the marginal substitution effect of coal has become increasingly apparent.In addition, the stock of power plants in East and Southeast Asia has been less than 10 days for a long time, and the price rise drives the demand for large-scale coal replenishment, thus prompting the international coal price to rise sharply.International coal prices hit a new high, improve the domestic market sentiment, its domestic futures coal prices are at a low level, the standard spot 1100 yuan/ton, a serious discount.Therefore, there are conditions for a sharp rise.2, Indonesia again rumors of production, stimulate the mood catalytic futures prices rose sharply.On February 7, the General Bureau of Minerals and Coal of the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources announced that it will suspend operations of mining companies that have not submitted their 2022 work plans and budgets (RKAB).It is understood that the relevant departments of the Indonesian government issued documents in December 2021 and January this year urging these mining companies to submit work plans and budgets for 2022, but as of January 31, as many as 1,000 mining companies have not submitted.This news stimulated market sentiment, catalyzed domestic futures to climb.The analysis shows that most of the coal mines in Indonesia that have not submitted RKAB are small and medium-sized coal mines controlled by local military. The government has weak binding force and the supplementary submission plan is relatively easy, which has no substantial impact on the coal production in Indonesia.The emotional impact of the incident will soon dissipate.3, and “steel carbon peak delay” has nothing to do.Steel and coking coal only, and thermal coal has nothing to do with.Steel industry demand by the future real estate continued to suppress the impact of policy, will continue to lower.Referring to the historical development law of Europe, America, Japan and other developed countries, China will inevitably usher in a steel consumption plateau after the urbanization rate reaches 64%, and the proportion of electric furnace steel is constantly increasing, and the production of hot iron will decline year by year in the future. Even if “carbon neutrality peak time is delayed”, it will be difficult to change the continuous decline trend and expectation of coking coal demand in the future.Moreover, inevitable decline in steel production in 2022, on the one hand, is the current affected by events, 1-3 month still severely limit production on a large scale in north China, is expected to affect the production of 2500-30 million tons, the superposition of the year because of the real estate industry downturn, the requirements of the steel industry is expected to decline, so the steel carbon peak delay, basic supply and demand of no practical significance to the industry,And within market expectations.4, the current coal supply and demand situation and anticipation: status: recent prices strengthened by the dual influence of inventory decline gradually and the international coal prices rising even though in the condition of “for”, our country coal high monthly production innovation, as the coal stock gradually increase, in December, since the second half of the electric power enterprise library actively and gradually to develop support for coal prices.In January, as the weather turned cold, energy consumption double control ended in some areas, and demand improved significantly.And coal upstream affected by environmental protection gradually increased, supply contraction.As a result, the inventory of the whole industry chain is gradually declining, and the low inventory superposes the international coal price, which eventually makes the coal price still firm and upward even though the off-season of March and April is approaching.Expectations: still adhere to the beginning of March to April, “guarantee supply” part of the output, the production of mining gradually exhausted exit, output gradually shrink, and eventually lead to the may to June coal supply tension form, coal prices again sharply rise.July-august peak season is expected to rise to 1500-1800 yuan/ton level.Investment advice: Low valuations and high dividends are always worth deploying.Because coal price relatively optimistic judgment therefore low valuation, high dividend targets strongly suggest to continue to strengthen the allocation.Yankuang Energy is still the first, followed by China Shenhua Power Investment.